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6

Eclatant

4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 6 · OR 93

Keeneland · Race 7 - Thoroughbred Club Of America Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 04/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 102 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark04/10/2024 · OR 102 par4/10C6OR 102C0 @ Churchill Downs 30/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 99 · 1m110y Fas 122 · beat its mark30/11/2024 · OR 99 parC1 @ Gulfstream 01/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 97 · 7f Fas 120 · beat its mark01/02/2025 · OR 97 par1/02C1OR 97C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 96 · 7f Fas 120 · beat its mark02/05/2025 · OR 96 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 08/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 92 · 7f Fas 120 · below its mark08/06/2025 · OR 92 par8/06C5OR 92C6 @ Gulfstream 15/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 6f110y Fas 123 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 90 parC0 @ Keeneland 04/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 94 · 7f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 94 par4/04C?OR 94C0 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 102 · 7f Fas 123 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 102 parC0 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 101 · 7f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 101 par29/08C?OR 101projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?7th7th+0
2026-06-21Churchill Downs?1st1st0
2026-04-04Keeneland?1st1st+0
2026-02-15Gulfstream?1st7th−5
2025-06-08Churchill Downs?4th9th−4
2025-05-02Churchill Downs?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/102/054/0429/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20241st8/1597%100%+0.03
30/11/20243rd11/486%67%-0.19
01/02/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
02/05/20259th3/184%20%-0.64
08/06/20254th5/287%40%-0.47
15/02/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
04/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
21/06/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
29/08/20267th5/174%25%-0.49