Evanescence
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 105
Keeneland · Race 7 - Thoroughbred Club Of America Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 2.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-06-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 07/04/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 02/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |