Jersey Pearl
6yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 105
Keeneland · Race 7 - Thoroughbred Club Of America Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | BHA107 | 2nd | 14th | −10 |
| 2025-12-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2023 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/07/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 11/08/2024 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |