3
Queen's Martini
5yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 98
Keeneland · Race 7 - Thoroughbred Club Of America Stakes - Grade 2 · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲4
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 13th | −5 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-02-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2024 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 27/12/2024 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 23/02/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |