IvyArcIvyArc
5

And One More Time

4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 5 · OR 109

Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength12%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Woodbine 14/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 76 · 1m Fm 121 · beat its mark14/09/2024 · OR 76 par14/09C?OR 76C6 @ Woodbine 21/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 86 · 1m 120 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 86 parBHA93 @ Gulfstream 13/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 93 par13/1293OR 93C0 @ Gulfstream 24/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Tampa Bay Downs 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 108 · 1m1f Gd 119 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 108 par7/03C?OR 108C5 @ Aqueduct 17/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 107 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 107 parC0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 109 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 109 par6/06C?OR 109C5 @ Saratoga 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 106 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 106 parC0 @ Saratoga 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 108 · 1m110y 124 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 108 par22/08C?OR 108projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Saratoga?1st1st−0
2026-07-17Saratoga?1st6th−4
2026-06-06Saratoga?5th5th0
2026-04-17Aqueduct?1st6th−4
2026-03-07Tampa Bay Downs?5th5th−0
2026-01-24Gulfstream?7th7th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0924/016/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20241st20/10%100%+1.00
21/09/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
13/12/20252nd9/488%91%+0.03
24/01/20267th7/163%45%-0.18
07/03/20265th4/179%33%-0.46
17/04/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
06/06/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
17/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
22/08/20261st11/271%100%+0.29