10
Bless The Broken
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 10 · OR 105
Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 02/05/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |