9
Classic Q
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 9 · OR 112
Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 12th | 12th | −0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 24/01/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |