6
Deep Satin
5yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 6 · OR 111
Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |