4
Expensive Queen
5yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 108
Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
74%
Place Prob
54%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-01-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2025-05-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2024-11-07 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength99%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2024 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 08/06/2024 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 18/09/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 07/11/2024 | 4th | 16/5 | 83% | 63% | -0.21 |
| 18/04/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/05/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |