IvyArcIvyArc
2

Lush Lips

4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 112

Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength18%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 23/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 68 · 1m70y Fas 118 · beat its mark23/11/2024 · OR 68 par23/11C6OR 68C6 @ Gulfstream 10/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark10/01/2025 · OR 81 parC1 @ Tampa Bay Downs 08/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 119 · beat its mark08/03/2025 · OR 86 par8/03C1OR 86C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark02/05/2025 · OR 98 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 101 par28/06C5OR 101C0 @ Keeneland 11/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 108 · 1m1f Gd 121 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 108 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 107 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 107 par28/11C?OR 107C1 @ Gulfstream 28/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 109 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 109 parC5 @ Ellis Park 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 112 · 1m110y Fm 124 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 112 par23/08C5OR 112projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Ellis Park?2nd7th−4
2026-02-28Gulfstream?1st2nd−0
2025-11-28Churchill Downs?1st1st−0
2025-10-11Keeneland?1st1st0
2025-06-28Churchill Downs?1st6th−4
2025-05-02Churchill Downs?2nd2nd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/112/0528/1123/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/11/20241st7/163%100%+0.37
10/01/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
08/03/20252nd9/276%90%+0.14
02/05/20252nd10/382%83%+0.01
28/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
11/10/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
28/11/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
28/02/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
23/08/20262nd4/1198%89%-0.09