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3

Mandanaba

4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 114

Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 12/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 12512/11C5C1 @ ParisLongchamp 06/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m208y GS 1256/04C1C0 @ ParisLongchamp 11/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f209y GS 12511/05C?C0 @ Chantilly 15/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 12515/06C?1 @ Deauville 03/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 1233/08110 @ ParisLongchamp 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12323/0410C0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Fm 1226/06C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-06Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-04-23ParisLongchamp101st2nd−1
2025-08-03Deauville112th12th0
2025-06-15Chantilly?4th4th0
2025-05-11ParisLongchamp?3rd3rd0
2025-04-06ParisLongchamp?1st2nd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1115/066/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/20241st5/287%100%+0.13
06/04/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
11/05/20253rd15/261%83%+0.23
15/06/20254th3/184%73%-0.11
03/08/202512th8/158%8%-0.50
23/04/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
06/06/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00