1
Pin Up Betty
5yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 1 · OR 112
Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 11/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |