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5yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 8 · OR 110

Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 107 · 1m Yie 122 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 107 par6/06C?OR 107C1 @ Monmouth Park 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 112 · 1m1f Fm 118 · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 112 parC1 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 104 · 1m 124 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 104 par30/08C1OR 104C0 @ Keeneland 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 105 · 1m Fm 125 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 105 parC0 @ Del Mar 30/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 107 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark30/11/2025 · OR 107 par30/11C?OR 107C0 @ Keeneland 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 114 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 114 parC0 @ Saratoga 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 113 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 113 par6/06C?OR 113C0 @ Saratoga 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 113 · 1m1f Yie 124 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 113 parC0 @ Saratoga 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 111 · 1m110y 126 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 111 par22/08C?OR 111projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Saratoga?5th5th−0
2026-07-18Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-06-06Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-04-11Keeneland?1st1st0
2025-11-30Del Mar?1st1st0
2025-10-04Keeneland?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/064/106/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20256th20/10%38%+0.38
19/07/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
30/08/20252nd10/147%89%+0.42
04/10/20252nd5/174%90%+0.16
30/11/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
11/04/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
06/06/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
18/07/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
22/08/20265th5/696%33%-0.62