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11

Vina Arana

5yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 11 · OR 105

Keeneland · Race 8 - First Lady Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 23/08/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 98 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark23/08/2024 · OR 98 par23/08C6OR 98C5 @ Keeneland 10/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 103 · 1m1f110y Gd 122 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 103 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 22/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 121 · beat its mark22/11/2025 · OR 100 par22/11C5OR 100BHA105 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 105 · 1m 121 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 105 parC5 @ Keeneland 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 105 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 105 par10/04C5OR 105C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 108 · 1m Fm 118 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 108 parC1 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 109 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 109 par30/05C1OR 109C0 @ Woodbine 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 109 · 1m Fm 121 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 109 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 108 · 6f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 108 par29/08C?OR 108projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?5th5th0
2026-07-19Woodbine?1st1st−0
2026-05-30Churchill Downs?3rd4th−0
2026-05-02Churchill Downs?5th5th−0
2026-04-10Keeneland?4th10th−5
2025-12-21Turfway ParkBHA1057th19th−10

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0821/1230/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength61%

Delivery trend +7.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20241st9/488%100%+0.12
10/10/20256th13/891%50%-0.41
22/11/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
21/12/20257th14/126%14%-0.12
10/04/20264th10/147%73%+0.25
02/05/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
30/05/20263rd25/10%67%+0.67
19/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
29/08/20265th20/10%56%+0.56