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2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 97
Keeneland · Race 9 - Claiborne Breeders' Futurity - Grade 1 · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +35.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |