2
Coco No Loco
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 73
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 03/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 10/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |