Shakin My Head

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 75

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 1f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-18	Laurel Park	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-09-04	Colonial Downs	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-08-16	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-07-24	Colonial Downs	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-06-26	Laurel Park	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-05-31	Laurel Park	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 70/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▬

Strength53%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/11/2025	3rd	15/2	61%	80%	+0.19
01/01/2026	3rd	8/1	58%	78%	+0.20
10/05/2026	4th	10/3	82%	63%	-0.20
31/05/2026	5th	5/1	74%	50%	-0.24
26/06/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	86%	+0.12
24/07/2026	5th	7/1	63%	43%	-0.20
16/08/2026	1st	3/1	84%	100%	+0.16
04/09/2026	9th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
18/09/2026	9th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00