Mended Heart

3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 4

Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-20	Penn National	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-07-26	Colonial Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-25	Delaware Park	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 42/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength30%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/06/2026	7th	16/1	16%	14%	-0.02
26/07/2026	6th	20/1	0%	38%	+0.38
20/08/2026	8th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13