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4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 10

Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

27%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 25/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/07/2025 · OR 83 par25/07C6OR 83C6 @ Colonial Downs 27/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 85 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 85 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 82 · 1m3f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 82 par19/09C6OR 82C6 @ Laurel Park 19/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Laurel Park 12/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS12/04C6C6 @ Penn National 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 72 parC9 @ Laurel Park 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 12621/06C9C9 @ Delaware Park 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 76 parC9 @ Laurel Park 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m 12613/09C9projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Laurel Park?2nd2nd0
2026-08-15Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-06-21Laurel Park?6th6th0
2026-06-02Penn National?5th2nd+3
2026-04-12Laurel Park?5th2nd+3
2025-10-19Laurel Park?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0719/1021/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength90%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20255th15/261%33%-0.27
27/08/20253rd8/158%78%+0.20
19/09/20258th9/153%13%-0.40
19/10/20256th12/137%44%+0.08
12/04/20265th9/488%43%-0.45
02/06/20265th15/261%50%-0.11
21/06/20266th14/126%44%+0.18
15/08/20262nd6/492%88%-0.05
13/09/20262nd5/696%88%-0.08