5
Watch Me Sparkle
3yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 21/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |