3
Red Spitfire
3yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 77
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength99%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 08/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |