Chalk Talk
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2016-04-15 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 1st | +4 |
| 2015-12-05 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
| 2015-10-13 | Indiana Grand Race Course | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2015 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/12/2015 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 15/04/2016 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 17/09/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |