Paid Vacation
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 1
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-24 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |