1
Harewood
2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 74
Laurel Park · Race 6 - James F. Lewis III Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +10.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |