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2yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 8 · OR 68

Laurel Park · Race 6 - James F. Lewis III Stakes · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Monmouth Park 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f Fas 1175/07C6C6 @ Monmouth Park 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 66 · 5f Fas 120 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 66 par31/07C6OR 66C6 @ Monmouth Park 23/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 63 · 5f110y Gd 120 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 63 par23/08C6OR 63C6 @ Monmouth Park 13/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 66 · 6f Slo 120 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 66 par13/09C6OR 66projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Monmouth Park?1st3rd−2
2026-08-23Monmouth Park?2nd4th−2
2026-07-31Monmouth Park?4th6th−2
2026-07-05Monmouth Park?4th6th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0731/0723/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength15%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
31/07/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
23/08/20262nd11/271%90%+0.19
13/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24