1
Fuerteventura
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 96
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength86%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 18/10/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |