8
Red Zone Runner
3yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 9 · OR 93
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength69%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 12th | 6th | +5 |
| 2025-12-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 87/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 04/04/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |