What Say Thee
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 11 · OR 103
Laurel Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 10/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 22% | -0.65 |