1
Amalfi Drive
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 98
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Twixt Stakes · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2024 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2024 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |