IvyArcIvyArc
6

Especially

4yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 98

Laurel Park · Race 8 - Twixt Stakes · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fair Grounds 20/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 88 · 1m110y Fas 117 · beat its mark20/02/2025 · OR 88 par20/02C6OR 88C6 @ Keeneland 06/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 86 · 1m110y Slo 120 · below its mark06/04/2025 · OR 86 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 31/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fas 118 · below its mark31/05/2025 · OR 91 par31/05C6OR 91C6 @ Ellis Park 06/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark06/07/2025 · OR 94 parC5 @ Ellis Park 16/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 97 · 1m 118 · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 97 par16/08C5OR 97C5 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 93 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 93 parC6 @ Delaware Park 27/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 90 · 1m Slo 124 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 90 par27/05C6OR 90C6 @ Colonial Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 91 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 91 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 13/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 94 · 7f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 94 par13/08C6OR 94projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Colonial Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-27Colonial Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-27Delaware Park?4th5th−1
2026-04-18Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2025-08-16Ellis Park?5th6th−1
2025-07-06Ellis Park?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/026/0727/0513/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
06/04/20253rd13/266%75%+0.09
31/05/20253rd14/126%71%+0.45
06/07/20256th7/163%44%-0.19
16/08/20255th10/382%0%-0.82
18/04/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
27/05/20264th13/891%25%-0.66
27/06/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
13/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14