4
Reputation
4yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 96
Laurel Park · Race 8 - Twixt Stakes · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
| 2025-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-13 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2024 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 22/12/2024 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 13/04/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 13/07/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |