IvyArcIvyArc
2

Bold Diversion

4yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 107

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Polynesian Stakes · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Laurel Park 04/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 98 · 7f 120 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 98 par4/04C5OR 98C5 @ Delaware Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 103 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 103 parC6 @ Laurel Park 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 99 · 7f 123 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 99 par29/05C6OR 99C6 @ Laurel Park 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 103 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 103 parC7 @ Colonial Downs 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 7f Gd 124 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 98 par13/07C7OR 98C5 @ Colonial Downs 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 100 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 100 parC0 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f Fas 12222/08C?C5 @ Laurel Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 110 · 6f 120 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 110 parC7 @ Delaware Park 24/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 105 · 6f 122 · below its mark24/09/2026 · OR 105 par24/09C7OR 105projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Delaware Park?3rd5th−2
2026-09-12Laurel Park?7th7th0
2026-08-22Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-08-01Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-07-13Colonial Downs?2nd4th−2
2026-06-19Laurel Park?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0419/0622/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20265th20/10%0%0.00
20/05/20262nd11/271%67%-0.04
29/05/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
19/06/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
13/07/20262nd11/486%80%-0.06
01/08/20264th20/10%50%+0.50
22/08/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
12/09/20267th16/116%0%-0.16
24/09/20263rd10/1195%60%-0.35