5
Mr. Ripple
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 100
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Polynesian Stakes · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |