1
Shaft's Bullet
7yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 106
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Polynesian Stakes · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 59/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/07/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 02/03/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 03/05/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 21/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 31/05/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |