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4

Stronsino

5yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 110

Laurel Park · Race 9 - Polynesian Stakes · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

78%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 27/04/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 93 · 1m110y Gd 122 · below its mark27/04/2024 · OR 93 par27/04C6OR 93C6 @ Churchill Downs 02/06/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 100 · 1m Slo 118 · below its mark02/06/2024 · OR 100 parC6 @ Aqueduct 08/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 95 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark08/11/2024 · OR 95 par8/11C6OR 95C6 @ Aqueduct 13/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 95 · 1m Fas 121 · beat its mark13/12/2024 · OR 95 parC5 @ Laurel Park 22/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 1m110y Fas 123 · beat its mark22/03/2025 · OR 101 par22/03C5OR 101C6 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark18/04/2025 · OR 100 parC6 @ Pimlico 16/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 101 · 1m110y Fas 126 · below its mark16/05/2025 · OR 101 par16/05C6OR 101C6 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 102 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark13/06/2025 · OR 102 parC6 @ Laurel Park 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 109 · 1m110y Slo 123 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 109 par28/06C6OR 109projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2025-06-13Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2025-05-16Pimlico?5th6th−1
2025-04-18Laurel Park?2nd3rd−1
2025-03-22Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2024-12-13Aqueduct?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0413/1216/0528/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20242nd9/488%86%-0.02
02/06/20244th5/174%67%-0.07
08/11/20243rd14/126%67%+0.40
13/12/20241st7/282%100%+0.18
22/03/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
18/04/20252nd11/1094%86%-0.09
16/05/20255th13/891%50%-0.41
13/06/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
28/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14