3
Winterfell
5yo Horse · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 111
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Polynesian Stakes · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2024-12-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2024-11-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-10-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-07-25 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 19/05/2024 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 15/06/2024 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 25/07/2024 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 18/10/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/11/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 26/12/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |