5
Leader Bourbon
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Laval · Prix Alphonse Gouabau - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Vincennes | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Pornichet | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Chatelaillon | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-12 | Vincennes | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-11 | Caen | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/05/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 92% | +0.04 |
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.23 |
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 87% | +0.04 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 87% | +0.10 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 92% | +0.27 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |