3
Loic D'avel
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Laval · Prix Alphonse Gouabau - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#12
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +4.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | Chartres | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-25 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Vincennes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-05-30 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 8-16 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2024 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 24/09/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 18/03/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/04/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/05/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/06/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.14 |
| 25/08/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.01 |
| 14/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |