12
Luciano Royal
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Laval · Prix Alphonse Gouabau - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#16
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Angers | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Meslay Du Maine | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Cabourg | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Le Mont-Saint-Michel | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Laval | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Enghien | 4 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 6-16 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 28/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |