13
Luxury Du Douarou
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Laval · Prix Alphonse Gouabau - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vire | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Lisieux | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Vincennes | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Laval | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 05/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 94% | +0.28 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |