4
Lys Gema
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Laval · Prix Alphonse Gouabau - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#8
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Chatelaillon | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Les Sables | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-14 | Cherbourg | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Nantes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Vincennes | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 16-16 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2024 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 15/12/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.31 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 82% | -0.10 |