12
Ma Rose De Sarthe
4yo Filly · 0-0
Laval · Prix Ivan Lambertz - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Pornichet | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-25 | Le Mans | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Les Sables | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Nantes | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Pontchateau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 2-16 · tight 31/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 25/05/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 62% | -0.25 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |