13
Mellynga
4yo Filly · 0-0
Laval · Prix Ivan Lambertz - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#15
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Vincennes | 4 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Vire | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-21 | Cabourg | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Cabourg | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Cholet | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Argentan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 10-16 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 24/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 53% | +0.27 |
| 14/04/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 09/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 54% | +0.06 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 46% | +0.20 |
| 21/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/09/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |