16
Montana Monnerie
4yo Gelding · 9-13
Laval · Prix Gabriel Et Robert Sandrin - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Pornichet | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Vincennes | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Enghien | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-11 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Vincennes | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Le Mans | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 4-16 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 70% | -0.20 |
| 06/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 79% | +0.10 |
| 10/04/2026 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 23% | -0.56 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 77% | -0.02 |