12
Hilka De Bertrange
9yo Mare · 0-0
Laval · Prix Loic Bellanger - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#5
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 7
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Enghien | 7 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 9th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mauquenchy | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Graignes | 6 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Nantes | 5 | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 09/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 21/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 09/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 24/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 13/03/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 16/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |