1
Navesink Pirate
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 1 · OR 78
Meadowlands · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength78%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-15 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-05-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-03-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2024 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 30% | -0.49 |
| 25/08/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 15/09/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 23/03/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 11/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 15/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |