Renovator

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 9 · OR 80

Meadowlands · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Laurel Park	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-16	Colonial Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-23	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-03-15	Gulfstream	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-02-22	Gulfstream	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2025-10-11	Delaware Park	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100

▼ SLIPPING

Trend▬

Strength70%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/08/2025	3rd	15/2	61%	67%	+0.06
30/08/2025	3rd	4/1	79%	71%	-0.08
11/10/2025	3rd	9/4	88%	71%	-0.17
22/02/2026	8th	20/1	0%	22%	+0.22
15/03/2026	7th	8/1	58%	14%	-0.44
23/07/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	88%	+0.51
16/08/2026	5th	7/2	82%	64%	-0.18
12/09/2026	5th	9/1	53%	43%	-0.10