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3

Mayday Malone

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 98

Meadowlands · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength94%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Epsom Downs 22/04/2025 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 75 · 1m113y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2025 · OR 75 par22/044OR 752 @ Chester 14/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 73 · 7f127y Sft 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Newmarket 20/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 73 par20/064OR 733 @ Chester 28/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 78 · 7f1y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Chester 11/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 81 · 7f127y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 81 par11/074OR 814 @ Doncaster 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 82 · 7f6y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Chester 12/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 7f1y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 85 par12/094OR 85C6 @ Aqueduct 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 95 parC6 @ Colonial Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 101 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 101 par27/06C6OR 101projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Colonial Downs?9th8th+1
2026-04-18Aqueduct?7th6th+1
2025-09-12Chester41st-2th+3
2025-08-02Doncaster41st-2th+3
2025-07-11Chester42nd-1th+3
2025-06-28Chester31st-3th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0428/0612/0927/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/04/202513th17/255%0%-0.55
14/06/20252nd28/10%86%+0.86
20/06/20252nd17/255%88%+0.32
28/06/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
11/07/20252nd11/486%88%+0.02
02/08/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
12/09/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
18/04/20267th15/261%14%-0.46
27/06/20269th5/174%20%-0.54