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Thorsness

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 1 · OR 88

Meadowlands · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Aqueduct 15/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m 122 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 85 par15/01C9OR 85C9 @ Aqueduct 05/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 86 · 6f 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 86 parC9 @ Aqueduct 01/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 85 · 1m Gd 122 · beat its mark01/03/2026 · OR 85 par1/03C9OR 85C8 @ Aqueduct 12/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 79 · 1m 126 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 79 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 79 · 1m Fas 126 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 79 par2/05C8OR 79C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 81 · 1m 126 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Monmouth Park 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 83 · 1m70y Fas 123 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 83 par1/08C8OR 83C8 @ Monmouth Park 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 123 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 82 parC6 @ Monmouth Park 13/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 87 · 1m110y Slo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 87 par13/09C6OR 87projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Monmouth Park?2nd1st+1
2026-08-30Monmouth Park?1st2nd−1
2026-08-01Monmouth Park?1st2nd−1
2026-05-23Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2026-05-02Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-12Aqueduct?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0112/041/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
05/02/20267th11/271%33%-0.38
01/03/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
12/04/20262nd10/1195%80%-0.15
02/05/20262nd11/271%80%+0.09
23/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
01/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
30/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
13/09/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06