5
Tocayo
5yo Horse · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 99
Meadowlands · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2024 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 24/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |